Factors Affecting Real Estate Selling Prices in Saudi Arabia 2026: Comprehensive Guide with Statistics and Studies

Introduction: Why Does One Property Cost More Than Another?

Have you ever wondered why a villa in Al Nakheel district in Riyadh sells for double the price of a similar villa in another neighborhood? Or why property prices near Riyadh Metro stations surged by 78% while distant areas rose only 22%? The answer lies in understanding the factors that influence real estate pricing.

The Saudi real estate market is estimated at approximately $75 billion in 2025, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 7.89-8%, and is expected to exceed $100 billion by 2030. This massive market is not governed by chance but by a set of interconnected factors that we will explain in this comprehensive guide with numbers and studies.

Whether you are a seller wanting to price your property correctly, a buyer looking for the best value for your money, or an investor searching for the next opportunity, this article is written for you. Keep it as a reference for every real estate decision.

First: Location — The Undisputed Number One Factor

The famous global real estate saying goes: "Location, location, location." This saying applies to the Saudi market more than any other. Location alone can create a difference exceeding 300% in the price per square meter between one neighborhood and another in the same city.

City Impact on Price

Real estate prices vary dramatically from one city to another in the Kingdom. Riyadh leads with an average villa price per square meter of SAR 5,824, followed by Jeddah at SAR 5,707 per square meter. However, luxury villas in upscale Riyadh neighborhoods reach SAR 7,500 to 10,000 per square meter. Makkah and Madinah have a special status due to their religious and tourism significance, which raises prices exceptionally, especially in areas near the Two Holy Mosques.

Neighborhood Impact Within the City

Within Riyadh alone, the differences between neighborhoods are striking. North Riyadh leads growth at 15-18% in Q1 2025, driven by proximity to the King Abdullah Financial District. Al Nakheel follows with 12-14% growth thanks to new metro station connections. Al Sahafa recorded 11-13% growth due to premium residential developments. Al Malaz saw 10-12% growth from urban renewal projects. And Al Olaya rose 9-11% with continued business district expansion.

In contrast, southern Riyadh and the old city center see much lower prices, creating investment opportunities for those who can read future development trends.

Proximity to Services and Essential Facilities

Properties near quality schools, universities, hospitals, commercial centers, and transportation see notable value increases. Neighborhoods that provide a good educational environment and nearby entertainment and work options experience higher demand and consequently higher prices. This was confirmed by a Sotheby's International Realty study on the Saudi market, which showed that increased demand in areas with comprehensive services directly raises prices.

Second: Street Width — A Factor Many Overlook

One of the factors most overlooked by beginner buyers is the width of the street the property faces. This factor has a direct and significant impact on both price and daily quality of life.

Street Classification and Impact

Streets 30 meters wide or more are considered main commercial streets, suitable for commercial properties, offices, and shops. This type significantly increases the price for commercial use but may be bothersome for residential living due to noise and traffic. Streets 20-25 meters wide are ideal for upscale living — wide enough for easy movement and parking but not noisy. Streets 15-20 meters wide are acceptable for residential use, especially in model closed neighborhoods where only residents pass through. Streets 12 meters or less represent a real problem, particularly for parking after the development plan fills up, and their value drops noticeably compared to wider streets.

Corner Properties and Frontages

Corner properties facing two streets enjoy a price premium of up to 15-25% compared to single-frontage properties. The corner provides better lighting, greater ventilation, and easier access and parking. Additionally, north or northeast-facing properties are preferred in Saudi Arabia's hot climate as they receive less direct sunlight.

Street Direction and Traffic Flow

Quiet streets with light traffic increase residential property value. Most buyers seek a peaceful place away from congestion and noise. Conversely, commercial properties benefit from high-traffic streets as they attract more customers.

Third: Infrastructure and Major Projects — The Most Powerful Price Driver

No factor changes the real estate price landscape as quickly as major infrastructure projects. Saudi Arabia is witnessing the largest wave of infrastructure development in its history.

Riyadh Metro — Stunning Impact in Numbers

The Riyadh Metro, launched in December 2024, is the world's largest driverless metro system with six lines and 85 stations. It transported over 100 million passengers in its first 9 months alone. The impact on real estate prices has been immediate and remarkable.

The Knight Frank study released in October 2025, titled "The Value of Access: Measuring the Impact of Riyadh Metro on Real Estate," revealed stunning numbers. In Al Yarmuk, villa prices near the metro station surged by 78% between Q2 2023 and Q2 2025, compared to only 22% in distant areas. In Tuwaiq, nearby properties rose 20% versus 10% for distant ones. Even in the upscale Al Malqa district, properties near the metro recorded a 20% increase.

For apartments, the study showed that every 100 meters closer to a metro station increases the price per square meter by SAR 19. In other words, a 250 sqm apartment 500 meters from the station is SAR 24,000 more expensive than an identical apartment one kilometer away. Approximately 1.5 million of Riyadh's 8.3 million residents live within a 15-minute walk of a metro station, equivalent to 18% of the population.

Highways and Main Corridors

Proximity to major highways has a dual effect: it significantly increases commercial property value, but residential properties directly overlooking the highway may be negatively affected by noise. The ideal residential distance is close enough to reach the main corridor within minutes, but not directly facing it.

Giga Projects

Projects like Qiddiya, Diriyah, King Salman Park, and Riyadh Green are completely redrawing the real estate price map. Land prices adjacent to giga projects have risen 30-40% since early 2023. Grade-A office rents have grown 80% since 2021. King Salman Park, set to become the world's largest urban park, is fundamentally elevating surrounding property values. The Riyadh Green project with 7.5 million trees enhances central neighborhood appeal and raises quality of life and consequently property prices.

Fourth: Parks and Green Spaces — Surprising Results

A recent academic study conducted by Dr. Sami Al-Dubaikhi and Prof. Taher Ladraa from the Urban Planning Department at King Saud University, published in the prestigious Buildings scientific journal, revealed surprising results about the impact of neighborhood parks on real estate prices in Riyadh.

Large Parks Within Neighborhoods

Large parks of two hectares or more located within the urban fabric of the neighborhood have a clear positive impact on surrounding property prices, provided they are well-maintained and accessed via local residential streets.

North Riyadh Parks Excel

Parks in northern Riyadh neighborhoods contribute a price premium ranging from 10-18% on adjacent residential property values due to regular care and maintenance. Eastern Riyadh neighborhood parks add an increase ranging between 5-9%. Meanwhile, central and southern parks decline to a limited or even negative impact due to poor maintenance.

Surprise: Parks at Neighborhood Edges

The striking finding — contrary to international experience — is that parks located at neighborhood edges alongside main roads have a negative impact on directly overlooking properties, even if they are large and well-maintained. The reason is the noise and traffic on adjacent main roads. Small parks have no notable impact on prices due to limited greenery and green spaces.

Fifth: Property Size and Internal Specifications

A property's size and internal specifications play a pivotal role in determining its price. But the relationship is not always linear — there are important tipping points.

Ideal Size by Type

Each property type has a "golden point" size where the price per square meter is at its highest. Apartments in Riyadh average SAR 3,000-5,000 per square meter, while in areas like Dar Al-Baida they drop to SAR 1,900-3,250. Villas in upscale northern Riyadh neighborhoods like Hittin and Al Malqa range from SAR 9,500 to 13,500 per square meter. Central Riyadh apartments in areas like As-Sulimaniyah, Al-Taawun, and An Nakheel range from SAR 6,600 to 10,500 per square meter.

Room Count and Design

The number of bedrooms, living room size, and amenities directly affect the price. Homes with many bedrooms are attractive to large families — the largest segment in the Saudi market. Modern design and high-quality finishes notably increase value compared to traditional designs.

Property Age and Condition

New or recently renovated properties command much higher prices than older ones. In 2025 data, villa prices rose about 2-3%, while apartments saw a slight decline of 0.5-1%, partly due to increased supply from new projects. Capital improvements such as kitchen and bathroom renovations, exterior updates, and regular maintenance tangibly raise property value.

Sixth: Supply and Demand — The Eternal Economic Law

Supply and demand are the fundamental drivers of any market, and the Saudi real estate market is no exception. What distinguishes the current Saudi market is a real structural gap between supply and demand.

Rising Demand Numbers

Riyadh alone needs an additional 305,000 housing units by 2030 to meet growing demand. Riyadh's population is expected to rise from 7 million to 9.6 million by 2030. Some 63% of the population is under 30, and this segment is moving toward modern living patterns. Internal migration from other cities to Riyadh continues to increase. International talent attraction is driving demand for luxury properties.

Structural Supply Gap

There is a structural shortage estimated at 250,000 housing units in the Kingdom. This shortage is one factor preventing a real estate bubble, as demand is genuine and not speculative. Speculative purchases account for only 15-20% of transactions, confirming that real end-user demand is the primary driver.

Shifts in Demand Type

Young people are gravitating toward small, modern apartments instead of large villas. Demand is increasing for integrated residential communities offering recreational, sports, and social amenities. Mixed-use projects combining residential, commercial, and entertainment have become more attractive.

Seventh: Interest Rates and Mortgage Financing

Interest rates are among the strongest factors affecting real estate prices, as they determine the purchasing power of a large segment of buyers who rely on bank financing.

The Interest-Price Relationship

When interest rates fall, mortgage financing becomes cheaper, increasing the number of eligible buyers, raising demand, and consequently prices — and vice versa. The relative stability expected in interest rates during 2026 will support continued mortgage financing at reasonable costs.

Lending Policies

The Saudi Central Bank applies conservative lending policies with a maximum loan-to-value ratio of 70%. The default rate remains low at 1.8%, indicating healthy lending practices. These conservative policies protect the market from excessive speculation and ensure long-term stability.

Government Support Programs

Programs like Sakani and the Real Estate Development Fund facilitate homeownership for a broader segment of citizens. These programs increase actual demand and support prices in the middle and lower segments.

Eighth: Macroeconomic Factors

The Kingdom's overall economic performance directly and indirectly affects the real estate market.

Oil Prices

Despite economic diversification efforts, oil still influences the real estate market. Higher oil prices mean larger government revenues, more projects, and real estate growth. Lower oil prices mean slowdown in government projects. However, Saudi Arabia has massive cash reserves enabling it to withstand price drops for longer periods.

GDP and Unemployment Rates

Strong economic growth means increased individual income and purchasing power. The Saudi unemployment rate stood at 7.8% in Q3 2024, and with new job creation in major projects, housing demand increases. The inflation rate is controlled at approximately 1.9%, maintaining purchasing power.

Vision 2030 and Economic Diversification

Economic diversification creates new sectors such as tourism, entertainment, technology, and industry, each generating additional demand for real estate. The real estate sector is expected to contribute 8.8% of GDP by 2030, compared to approximately 5-6% currently. S&P Global confirmed in its report that its outlook for the Saudi commercial real estate sector during 2025-2026 remains optimistic.

Ninth: Legislation and Government Policies

Government decisions have an immediate and direct impact on real estate prices.

Real Estate Transaction Tax

The new Real Estate Transaction Tax law issued by Royal Decree in September 2024 and effective from April 2025 imposes a 5% tax on property value. Investors factor this tax when determining selling prices. The new system includes exemptions for mergers, acquisitions, and public subscriptions.

Riyadh Rent Freeze

The government announced a freeze on residential and commercial rent increases in Riyadh for 5 years. This decision affects investment return calculations and pushes some investors to reassess their strategies.

Vacant Land Fees Increase

Increasing the tax on undeveloped land aims to incentivize owners to develop or sell it, increasing supply and easing price pressure.

Foreign Ownership

The new foreign ownership system opens wide doors for quality foreign real estate investments, especially from institutional investors. This creates additional demand for luxury and commercial properties.

Tenth: Construction and Material Costs

The construction cost index rose by 0.7% year-on-year as of September 2025. Rising material and labor costs directly reflect on final real estate prices.

Construction Materials

Prices of steel, cement, concrete, and lumber affect construction costs and consequently the final property price. Global material price increases are reflected in the local market.

Labor Costs

With increasing mega projects in the Kingdom, demand for skilled labor rises, raising construction costs. Saudization policies may also affect labor costs in the construction sector.

Total Loss Equation

If repair costs exceed 80% of the property's market value, it is considered a total loss. This criterion is important when evaluating older properties that need significant maintenance.

Eleventh: Demographics — A Decisive Future Factor

Understanding demographics helps predict future price trends.

Population Growth

The Kingdom is experiencing accelerated population growth driven by natural growth, internal migration, and international talent attraction. Every additional million people means demand for tens of thousands of new housing units.

Changing Lifestyle Patterns

Average Saudi family size is gradually decreasing. Young people prefer modern compact apartments over large traditional villas. Demand is increasing for residential communities offering an integrated lifestyle.

Major Event Tourism

Hosting Expo 2030 and the 2034 FIFA World Cup will attract millions of visitors and create enormous demand for residential and hotel units. Expo 2030 alone is expected to attract 40 million visitors. The World Cup will require massive hospitality infrastructure.

Twelfth: Official Market Statistics 2025-2026

Let us summarize the most important official numbers governing the market currently:

Price Indicators

The real estate price index recorded annual growth of 3.2% in Q2 2025 compared to 4.3% in Q1. The residential sector slowed from 5.1% in Q1 to 0.4% in Q2. The commercial sector jumped from 2.6% to 11.7% in the same period. The agricultural sector rose 7.3%.

Transaction Volume

Real estate transactions reached a record SAR 2.5 trillion in 2024, with over 622,000 deals covering 5.8 billion square meters. Transaction volume decreased by 17% but areas increased, meaning fewer but larger deals.

Future Outlook

Experts forecast national price increases of 5-7% in 2026. Riyadh leads with expected annual growth of 8-10% through 2026. Jeddah shows steady 4-6% annual growth. The NEOM region could see speculative growth of 15-20%.

How to Evaluate Your Property Based on These Factors?

After understanding all the influencing factors, here are the practical steps to evaluate any property:

Market Comparison Method

Compare the property with recently sold examples in the same neighborhood with similar specifications. This is the most accurate method to determine true market value.

Income Method

Used for rental properties. The property price is calculated based on expected annual rental income minus depreciation and maintenance costs.

Cost Method

Used for new properties. The property price is calculated based on current construction cost plus land value.

Golden Tip

Don't rely on a single factor. A smart property combines the most positive factors: excellent location, developed neighborhood, wide street, near metro and services, modern construction, and in an area with rising demand. For an accurate valuation, consult a certified property appraiser from the General Real Estate Authority.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the most important factor determining property price?

Location is the undisputed first factor. An upscale neighborhood in Riyadh commands a completely different price than a less developed one, even if the property has the same specifications.

How much does the metro affect real estate prices?

According to the Knight Frank 2025 study, properties near Riyadh Metro stations rose by up to 78% in some neighborhoods. Every 100 meters closer to the station increases the price per square meter by SAR 19.

Does street width really affect the price?

Yes, significantly. Streets 20-25 meters wide are ideal for upscale residential living. Narrow streets less than 12 meters lose value due to parking problems and congestion.

Do parks always raise property value?

Not always. Large, well-maintained parks within the neighborhood raise prices by 10-18%. But parks at neighborhood edges near main roads may have a negative impact.

Is the Saudi real estate market in a bubble?

Current indicators say no. The price-to-income ratio in Riyadh is 7.2x, which is moderate compared to global cities. The default rate is low at 1.8%. Speculative purchases account for only 15-20%. And there is a real structural shortage of 250,000 units.

When is the best time to buy property in Saudi Arabia?

The best time is when you find the right property at the right price in the right area. Don't wait for prices to drop if structural demand continues. Watch for seasonal slowdowns and take advantage of low interest rate financing opportunities.

How do I choose the right neighborhood for investment?

Look for neighborhoods with upcoming infrastructure projects such as new metro stations, roads, or government projects. Buy before project completion and benefit from the expected price increase after operation.

Conclusion

The Saudi real estate market is undergoing a historic transformation. Understanding the factors affecting prices is not a luxury but a necessity for everyone dealing with this market. Location, neighborhood, street width, infrastructure, supply and demand, interest rates, and government legislation all interact together to determine the final price.

Saudi Arabia is heading toward a promising real estate future supported by Vision 2030, mega projects, and advanced infrastructure. Those who understand these factors and read the landscape intelligently will make the best decisions whether selling, buying, or investing.

Share this guide with everyone interested in real estate. Knowledge is the most powerful tool in the hands of a smart investor.